Should You Open or Keep It Sealed? The Expected Value Math

"Should I rip it or keep it sealed?" is the most common question in the hobby. Our answer is to do the math, then decide based on what you actually want. Here's the method our tools use.

Expected value in one paragraph

Expected value (EV) is the average value of what you'd pull if you opened the same product many, many times. For a pack, it's the sum of each card's chance of appearing multiplied by its price. If a pack's EV is lower than its cost, opening loses money on average.

Why most openings land below the average

Card values are extremely lopsided. A few chase cards are worth a lot and most cards are worth very little. Those rare big hits pull the average up, so the typical box, or median, usually opens for less than the EV. The simulator shows this as a distribution chart.

What you need

1. Card prices: we use TCGplayer market prices for every card in the set.
2. Pull rates: we only pre-fill rates published by a cited source. Otherwise you enter your own and we label them as assumptions.
3. Selling costs: fees, shipping, and your time. Singles worth less than a few dollars are hard to sell profitably.
4. The sealed price: what you could sell the sealed product for today.

A simple decision rule

• If you want specific cards, buying those singles is almost always cheaper than opening packs to find them. See the set completion assistant.
• If you enjoy opening, set a budget you'd happily spend on entertainment.
• If you're holding for value, remember that past price increases don't guarantee future ones.

Run your own numbers with the open vs keep sealed calculator.

General information only. It's not professional, financial or legal advice.