Scarlet & Violet pull rates
Per-pack odds from TCGplayer: Scarlet & Violet Pull Rates (updated Feb 27, 2025) (8,000+ packs opened by TCGplayer; 95% confidence intervals on source page), combined with today's TCGplayer market prices. TCGplayer prices as of Oct 15, 2026 · refreshed Oct 23, 2026
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Odds by rarity
| Rarity | Per pack | Approx. | Cards | Specific card | Avg market | Top card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 13.76% | 1 in 7 | 12 | 1.15% | $0.78 | Gyarados ex $1.85 |
| Ultra Rare | 6.57% | 1 in 15 | 20 | 0.33% | $2.91 | Arcanine ex $12.97 |
| Illustration Rare | 7.67% | 1 in 13 | 24 | 0.32% | $16.85 | Drowzee $46.12 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 3.15% | 1 in 32 | 10 | 0.32% | $16.51 | Gardevoir ex $67.89 |
| Hyper Rare | 1.85% | 1 in 54 | 6 | 0.31% | $5.04 | Miraidon ex $7.57 |
Expected value of hits per pack
Hits in a Scarlet & Violet pack are worth about $2.20 on average at today's prices. This counts only the rarities above, not commons, uncommons, regular rares or reverse holos. The typical pack is worth much less, because a few chase cards pull the average up. Run the simulator to see the full distribution.
Chase cards and their odds
| Card | Rarity | Market | Chance per pack | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardevoir ex #245 | Special Illustration Rare | $67.89 | 0.32% (1 in 317) | Grail |
| Drowzee #210 | Illustration Rare | $46.12 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Ralts #211 | Illustration Rare | $41.70 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Slowpoke #204 | Illustration Rare | $37.79 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Kirlia #212 | Illustration Rare | $35.48 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Riolu #215 | Illustration Rare | $30.40 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Fidough #213 | Illustration Rare | $23.78 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Miraidon ex #244 | Special Illustration Rare | $20.64 | 0.32% (1 in 317) | Grail |
| Greavard #214 | Illustration Rare | $20.48 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
| Wiglett #206 | Illustration Rare | $19.79 | 0.32% (1 in 313) | Grail |
Specific-card odds assume every card within a rarity is equally likely, which the source supports for most cards. Your results will vary. Related: Scarlet & Violet card list · Scarlet & Violet FAQ · What are pull rates? · Is a booster box worth it?