How to use this calculator
Set every rate from the actual rules you want to model. The linear ramp begins at the soft-pity attempt: that attempt has base rate plus one increment. Earlier attempts use the base rate; the hard-pity attempt is 100%. Current pity means consecutive misses already made, so the next attempt is current + 1. The target is a single qualifying success. Featured-item splits, lost-split guarantees, multiple copies and counter resets after success are not modeled.
The formula
P(first success within n) = 1 − ∏(1 − pᵢ)
Here p is a probability from 0 to 1, n is a whole number of attempts, C(a,b) counts combinations, and ∏ means multiply all the factors. The input labels define the other symbols.
A worked example
These starting inputs are hypothetical. A hard cap of 60 guarantees success by attempt 60 in this model.
Does this predict what I will get?
No. It describes a probability under the rules you enter. A single run can differ from the average. A displayed rounded 100% may still be slightly below certainty unless the model includes a guarantee.
Where do the rates come from?
You enter them. Check the rules and rate disclosure for your exact outcome. We do not supply odds for real products, collect account details or fetch rates from a game or seller.